Obviously, the interviewer is implying about loyalty to the state (“state” as in country, not a US State) or to an administration, and I know that they are implying that. But I am not loyal to an administration. But I know that’s what they actually meant.
How would the polygraph interpret it if I say “Yes”, because I’m answering based on my interpretation of loyalty to the constitution, but deep down, I full well know the implied question the interviewer is asking.
🤔
Wait what are the Bayesian priors? Are we assuming that the baseline is 50% true and 50% false? And what is its error rate in false positives versus false negatives? Because all these matter for determining after the fact how much probability to assign the test being right or wrong.
Put another way, imagine a stupid device that just says “true” literally every time. If I hook that device up to a person who never lies, then that machine is 100% accurate! If I hook that same device to a person who only lies 5% of the time, it’s still 95% accurate.
So what do you mean by 48% accurate? That’s not enough information to do anything with.